Strategic Fixed Income: reflation for now, but will it last?



​Since June, US 10-year Treasury yields have risen by a reasonable margin, developed economies have witnessed a reflationary uptick and markets have focused heavily on expectations of a US rate hike in December and fiscal expansion policies to appear. In this latest video, John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains why markets may be misguided and the ‘reflationists’ are getting a little carried away. Pattullo notes that we are still in a long-term structural downward trend, with continuing low growth, low inflation and low defaults. The inflation uptick is unlikely to translate into a persistent trend. Given the current backdrop, Pattullo and his colleagues see many reasons not to deviate from their current strategy of looking for sensible, dependable carry (coupon) and believes we are not yet at a point to call an end to the bond bull market.