Henderson Global Dividend Study - February 2017

Edition 13

Download the latest Henderson Global Dividend Study here. This, the first study of its kind, analyzes dividend trends around the world on a quarterly basis.

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What is the Henderson Global Dividend Study?

The Henderson Global Dividend Study (HGDS) is a long-term study into global dividend trends, and is the first of its kind. It is a measure of progress that global firms are making in paying their investors an income on their capital. It analyses dividends paid every quarter by the 1,200 largest firms by market capitalisation.

US dividend growth slows to post-crisis low

Global dividends inched ahead just 0.1%, reaching $1.15 trillion in 2016, according to the Henderson Global Dividend Study, a long-term study of global dividend trends. There were four reasons for the lack of progress. First, dividend growth in the US, which accounts for two fifths of the global total payout, slowed sharply. Secondly, the UK, Australia, and emerging markets saw declines year-over-year. Thirdly, the US dollar was stronger, so dividends paid around the world were translated into dollars at less favorable exchange rates. And finally, special dividends were lower year-over-year. On an underlying basis, which adjusts for changes in exchange rates, special dividends and other factors, growth of 0.6% year-over-year was also very modest. Following a weak fourth quarter, when dividends fell 0.4% year-over-year, the HGDS ended 2016 at 158.2, with little change to global dividend growth at the headline level in recent years.


Key Highlights

  • Global dividends fell 4.0% in Q3 to $281.7bn, weakest performance since Q2 2015
  • Lower US special dividends made a significant impact to the headline rate, but underlying US dividend growth has also slowed
  • Seasonal shift to weaker areas of the world – China, Australia and UK
  • On an underlying basis dividends were 0.3% lower
  • Henderson has slightly reduced 2016 dividend growth forecast to 0.9% in headline terms, and 1.0% in underlying terms
  • Total global dividends for 2016 expected to be $1.16 trillion


All figures as of 12.31.2016, Henderson Global Investors

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

This information does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

Glossary of terms

Headline dividends – The sum total of all dividends received.
Headline Growth – Change in total gross dividends.
Special dividends – Typically, one-off payouts made by companies to shareholders that are declared to be separate from their regular dividend cycle.
Underlying dividend growth – Headline dividend growth adjusted for special dividends, change in currency, timing effects and index changes.

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