- Il Mondo Article
Una buona azione fatta in autonomia
19 November 2009
- Bond O’Clock – it’s time for bonds
Bond fund manager John Pattullo comments on today’s Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision to cut base rate to 1.5%
8 January 2009
- The view from the US
Antony Gifford and Nick Cowley, co-managers of the Henderson Horizon American Equity Fund examine what they consider could be three potential outcomes for American equity markets during 2009.
5 January 2009
- The view from Secured Loans
Julian Green, head of secured loans at Henderson looks at how forced sellers have caused an indiscriminate sell off in the sector. However, tiptoeing through the secured loans minefield still has the potential to reap long-term rewards.
18 December 2008
- The view from Technology
Fund manager Stuart O'Gorman gives a case for technology for those investors seeking opportunities within equities
12 December 2008
- Time to lock-in the fixed rate of income from bonds
Today’s announcement from the Bank of England to lower the base rate to 2.0% is a welcome boost to the economy, but a further blow for high street savers.
4 December 2008
- The view from Japan
Michael Wood-Martin, fund manager, Japanese equities, draws on the parallels between the global events of 2008 and the boom and bust that Japan suffered in the 1990s and the lessons to be learned.
26 November 2008
- Henderson’s Pattullo comments on the MPC interest rate cut
John Pattullo sees good value in the investment grade corporate bond sector
7 November 2008
- Henderson’s US fund managers give their views on the US election results
US fund manager Nicholas Cowley gives his view on Obama's presidency and what it means for the American equity market
6 November 2008
- Henderson’s views from the trading floor
John Pattullo and Bill McQuaker give their views on the UK economy and provide an outlook for investors
5 November 2008
- Investing in the future
This is the Autumn edition of the Investing in the Future newsletter from Henderson’s Sustainable and Responsible Investment team where Tim Dieppe looks at the growth opportunities in energy and resource efficiency activities and George Latham reflects on the need to focus on long-term investing. The team also discuss some recent engagement activities, including carbon disclosure, Reed Elsevier and Suntech Power Holdings.
4 November 2008
- Multi-Manager viewpoint
Bill McQuaker gives an update on the market
23 October 2008
- Strategy Matters: Co-ordinated rate cuts and bank nationalisations
Tony Dolphin highlights three things that need to happen before equity markets will calm down
9 October 2008
- Strategy Matters: Economic effects of the US Treasury’s plan to buy ‘troubled assets'
Tony Dolphin comments on the impact of the US Treasury recovery plan
26 September 2008
- Strategy Matters: Necessary, but not sufficient
In this article we have tried to address some common questions including; what the nationalisation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac means for the US, the US government’s reaction to financial institution failures thus far and where do we go from here?
23 September 2008
- Henderson’s US fund manager comments on recent events in the US financial sector
Nicholas Cowley gives his views on the US financial sector
17 September 2008
- Fund manager views on the latest announcements from the financials sector, and the implications for markets and investors
Three fund managers from equities, fixed income and multi-manager provide their views on the latest announcements from the financials sector
15 September 2008
- The Art of Multi-Managing
In this Q&A Bill explains why Multi-Manager funds should be considered as a smart strategy for investors during turbulent markets.
6 August 2008
- Henderson's Pattullo views new IMA Strategic Bond Sector as good news for investors seeking active bond returns
The creation of a Strategic Bond sector will help demonstrate to investors the benefits of a fully unconstrained investment approach, and will also allow for a more meaningful comparison between the new breed of active bond funds that share the ‘Strategic’ name. However, we strongly believe that an equity cap of 5% within the non-core portion of the portfolio (rather than the official figure of 20%) would have been more in keeping with a fixed income mandate.
1 August 2008
- UBS Sales Commentary - 23 July 2008
Sticking with contrarian approach despite underperformance
23 July 2008
- Strategy Matters: Stagflation?
Adrian Pankiw looks at global inflation and how trends in unit labour cost and core inflation suggest that we may be nearing an end to the ‘stagflation’ environment.
23 July 2008
- Strategy Matters: Will the second half of 2008 be better than the first?
The first half of 2008 was an awful one for financial markets. Will the second half of the year fare any better?
18 July 2008
- Efficiency
Driven by increasing costs of oil and energy and concerns about climate change consumers, corporations, and governments are now placing energy efficiency high on their respective agenda, Tim Dieppe looks at what investment opportunities this could bring.
14 July 2008
- Why UK pension funds should consider infrastructure
Trustees and their advisers in the UK pensions industry face some key challenges. Falling interest rates, rising longevity assumptions and nervous equity markets all put pressure on funding levels. Any one of these factors could have a significant impact. Over recent months they have come along together. Trustees and their advisers are searching for answers and there are a number of reasons why this search sometimes focuses on infrastructure.
5 June 2008
- Two-tier European market looks fit to survive impending recession
With consumer goods, financials and automobiles overburdened by the spectre of impending recession – and consumers hastily tightening their belts, what now for Europe? What we are seeing now is a two tier market, where the positive performance of some sectors has a direct correlation with the underperformance of others.
2 June 2008
- Strategy Matters: Emerging Market Re-coupling?
The growth slowdown may be broadening out to emerging economies (EM). Future trends in individual countries’ leading indicators, metals prices and capital-producing countries’ exports to EM should be monitored to determine whether an EM slowdown is, in fact, underway. If there is a slowdown underway, there are important implications for global asset markets.
28 May 2008
- Focus on valuation offers attractive opportunities beyond the short term
The UK market remains very volatile as the economic news flow in the US and the UK continues to deteriorate. The US Federal Reserve has been particularly aggressive in cutting interest rates in order to reinflate the US economy, whilst the Bank of England has taken a more measured approach given the constraints of its inflation remit.
26 May 2008
- Ethical can be profitable
As part of a long-term approach to investment, sustainable and responsible investment (SRI) is particularly focused on understanding and aligning investments with long-term social change. For example, regulatory initiatives that penalise the tobacco and alcohol industries while promoting ‘greener’ house-building and more efficient cars are important indicators of underlying social change and have helped kick-start interest in social and environmental investment themes.
23 May 2008
- The diversity of Sustainable and Responsible Investing
What does ethical investing mean to you? Does it conjure up ideas of specialist funds with strict exclusion criteria, run by a manager content to work away in a small corner of the market and missing out on the big returns? Or does it seem more like the passing investment trend currently hitting the headlines because of a number of fund houses jumping onto the ‘green’ bandwagon?
19 May 2008
- Riding the ‘third wave’ of ethical investing
The most recent shift in ethical investment has seen the industry move even closer towards mainstream investing. The focus increasingly is on companies providing solutions to challenging social or environmental issues such as climate change.
6 May 2008
- The UCITS III opportunity for fixed income investors
The increased investment powers allowed within UCITS III have given fund managers a far broader toolkit. Fixed income managers now have the ability to focus more on the generation of absolute returns within a less constrained universe.
28 April 2008
- Sorting the real from the imagined as fear takes grip on financial sector
The financial sector continues to dominate the headlines, with the results season heavily focused on the concerns surrounding writedowns of the value of banking assets. As is often the case, some of these concerns are real and some are imagined. When fear takes a grip it becomes difficult to separate the two. However, there are some areas of the market still holding up relatively well. The industrial sector, for example, has been reporting satisfactory numbers and forecasts for future profits have remained intact.
28 April 2008
- Strategy Matters: Thoughts on Sterling and the Euro
Earlier this week the Euro breached $1.60 for the first time since it was launched in 1999, though it has subsequently dropped back a little and currently trades at $1.57. The Euro is also close to a record high against sterling, being worth close to 80p. Since the end of August last year the Euro has risen by 19% against sterling, reflecting a combination of sterling weakness and Euro strength.
24 April 2008
- A guide to fixed income for pension funds – Part 3
In this series we have seen that a well constructed, properly diversified fixed income portfolio can help pension funds diversify exposure to the equity market, reduce the volatility of the funding level, as well as provide alternative sources of returns. We have considered a number of fixed income asset classes as well as the use of derivatives to hedge risks or specifically target desired sources of return.
21 April 2008
- Deteriorating investor sentiment sees poor start for equity markets in 2008
Equity markets have had a poor start to 2008 as investor sentiment has deteriorated in the face of worsening economic news as a result of the fall out in the now well publicised global credit crunch. Japanese equities have suffered alongside developed markets although not as badly as other markets in the Asian region. Nevertheless Japan has failed to live up to its potential after what had promised to be a lucrative period for equity investors. The stockmarket peaked in early 2007 and has declined since. Is it time to double up or cut and run?
21 April 2008
- A guide to fixed income for pension funds – Part 2
In this edition we consider the role and use of derivatives in a fixed income portfolio. As with anything derivatives can seem complicated to those that are not familiar with them but at their most basic level they are contracts that allow investors to take or remove exposure to the price of an underlying asset such as stocks, bonds or commodities.
14 April 2008
- Henderson’s John Pattullo believes credit markets have finally hit the bottom
In my last note I mentioned the three factors that shape my view on bond markets; valuations, technicals and momentum. Last month valuations looked compelling, with a recession being well and truly priced in and bond investors being offered equity-like returns for bond type risks. However technicals (i.e. too many sellers and not enough buyers) and momentum (the direction of the market) were both lousy. Now the picture is changing.
10 April 2008
- Investment View: What price healthcare?
Healthcare is a basic human need, and this makes the healthcare sector a classic defensive investment during troubled economic times. Demographic trends and rising expectations of better healthcare are driving spending up, while innovation from the industry is continuing to improve the standard and availability of healthcare. The other side of the equation is the question of how can we possibly afford to fund this as a society? The issue of cost is becoming ever more pressing for governments, insurers and industry participants alike.
10 April 2008
- Strategy Matters: A message from the metals markets
Metals prices are in a long term bull market. Recent gains had become stretched after some investors grew complacent which lead to the recent setback in prices. Base metals may have trouble rising significantly from here in the short term but the precious metals rally should resume on renewed dollar weakness. Any bottom in the dollar will spell the end of the rally until global growth picks up again.
8 April 2008
- A guide to fixed income for pension funds – Part 1
Bonds are often seen as less glamorous compared to their equity brethren because of their lower returns. However, the benefits of fixed income should not be underestimated. As with any investment strategy, diversification is the key. A properly constructed portfolio will not only provide pension funds with protection from volatile stockmarkets but also help enhance its overall performance.
7 April 2008
- Europe – Corporate bonds look good value
Corporate bonds, particularly the higher quality investment grade ones, look cheap on any historical measure. In the UK, investment grade financial sector bonds are trading at levels that indicate that one in five banks will go bust in the next five years. If this really happens then the financial world is set to become a much scarier place.
1 April 2008
- Henderson’s John Pattullo continues to see bonds as a compelling value proposition
Last summer I stated that investment grade bonds were “a waste of time”. Back then, investment grade bonds yielded 0.6% over Gilts, which would not even cover the charges on most bond funds. Today, the investment grade index yields 2% over Gilts.
19 March 2008
- Strategy Matters: The Importance of Inflation Expectations
How inflation expectations evolve over the next year or so will be important for the world economy. Low inflation expectations were one of the underpinnings of the strong global output growth enjoyed over the last four years. A rise in expectations now threatens to prevent a repeat performance over the next four years.
11 March 2008
- Strategy Matters: European Equity Markets – More Bad News to Come?
European equity markets have had a torrid time over the last few months but there could be more bad news to come. To understand why, it is necessary to appreciate the importance of global developments for the region’s equity markets.
11 March 2008
- Putting some weight behind 130/30
A less commented on advantage of the 130/30 structure is its ability to introduce investment techniques typically used by hedge funds and other sophisticated investors into a traditional stock picking portfolio.
3 March 2008
- Contrarian investor James Henderson continues to see long-term value in the small cap market
James Henderson is using recent market weakness to refresh his portfolio and sees particular opportunity in small cap. In addition, he is purchasing CFDs in larger-cap companies to ensure exposure to a large-cap upturn.
25 February 2008
- Contrarian fund manager believes UK equities are in good-value territory again
Bearish concerns have dominated investors' minds of late but contrarian investors are beginning to ask whether equity valuations are now at low enough levels to represent good value?
8 February 2008
- The Outlook for Financial Markets in 2008
The second half of 2007 was the first half year since 2002 during which global bond market returns exceeded global equity market returns. It was also the first half year since 2002 to see a fall in the OECD’s leading indicators of global economic activity. This tells us two things. First, that developments in the global economy can still be important determinants of financial market returns and, second, that what happens in the US economy in the coming months will be crucial to the outlook for financial markets in 2008. This has been emphasised by developments in January, when equity markets have plunged on renewed US recession fears.
4 February 2008
- Flight to quality brings long-awaited cheer to bond investors
As a fixed income manager I feel that when markets are against you, sometimes honesty is the only policy. Over the course of the past year I have been brutally honest about where we are in the economic cycle, and the relative merits of cash versus bonds. Indeed, as far back as autumn 2006 I had been telling the investors in my funds that cash returns would outperform the returns to be made from bonds.
4 February 2008
- Strategy Matters: Is a recession priced into equity markets?
It has become increasingly common in the last few days to read that a US recession has been fully priced into equity markets. I do not believe this to be true.
30 January 2008
- Strategy Matters: The Fed cuts by 75bp
The Federal Reserve has cut its Fed funds and discount rates by 75 basis points today. The key Fed funds rate falls from 4.25% to 3.5%.
22 January 2008
- Strategy Matters: The equity market sell-off
Equity markets have had a terrible start to 2008, culminating in major sell-offs on Monday and Tuesday of this week.
22 January 2008
- Strategy Matters: The outlook for equity markets
Does the poor start to the year for equity markets presage a bear market, or will prices recover as the year progresses?
17 January 2008
- Strategy Matters: The Year Ahead
Risks to the global economy are significantly higher than this time last year. As the US housing recession deepens and the prices of oil and food rise, the risks to the U.S. consumer are not trivial. Concerns regarding financial companies’ holdings of opaque securities related to mortgage and other debt obligations continue to swirl in the background. But with concerted central bank action and on the back of solid growth in emerging markets we believe the global economy should be able to side-step recession.
14 January 2008
- Absolute return is still alive
Fixed income absolute return funds have not had good press of late. Many of them are not achieving their Libor plus 2% or more targets, while some are actually in negative territory on the year. Given that these funds were marketed as being able to achieve a positive return irrespective of market movements, the question of whether the concept has failed seems justifiable.
14 January 2008
- Is the US economy headed into recession?
Recent turmoil in credit markets and the continued weakness of the US housing market has led to fears that the US economy may be heading for recession. How worried should we be?
12 October 2007
- How high can oil (and petrol) prices go?
The price of Brent crude oil is up 13% since the beginning of the year and recently hit a record $79.64 per barrel before easing again. The price of petrol has had a similar run. The velocity of the recent run-up was mostly due to large speculative inflows and was quick to unwind in the most recent market rout; however, the fundamental backdrop for both crude oil and petrol prices remains supportive.
23 August 2007
- Has the Emerging Markets rally run its course?
Anyone who bought emerging market (EM) equities in and around 2002-03 has seen their money more than triple since then in U.S. dollar terms. The meteoric rise in EM stocks has some investors smiling and others wondering whether it’s too late to ‘get in’ now.
4 May 2007
- Growth, but no inflation
The world economy is experiencing an extraordinary spell of strong output growth and low consumer price inflation. This is very supportive of financial markets, especially equities. In the short-term, the risk may be unwanted disinflation, rather than a surge in inflation rates.
23 April 2007
- Will the Federal Reserve bail out equity markets?
Equity markets appear to be assuming that the Federal Reserve will come to their rescue if US output growth weakens further threatening recession. They may only be right if the inflation environment is favourable.
5 April 2007
- Strategy Matters: Bernanke's first year
Ben Bernanke became Chairman of the US Federal Reserve on 1st February last year. How has monetary policy evolved in his first year in office, and what has been the impact on the US economy?
1 February 2007
- Multi-Manager view: Picking a US fund manager
It is notoriously difficult to outperform the US equity market consistently, so how does a fund selector pick the right fund manager for the job?
5 October 2006
- Will European Equities continue to outperform?
European Equities have been a strong performer this year but where will they head next?
5 October 2006
- Where next for bond funds?
John Pattullo looks at the outlook for bond funds
21 September 2006
- Strategy Matters: How do lower oil prices change the outlook?
Oil prices have fallen around 20% from their peak in a little over a month. Is this fall sustainable? And, if so, what does it mean for the economic outlook?
14 September 2006
- Shopping for Shorts
Alistair Sayer looks at how shorting can reduce risk in a portfolio
1 September 2006
- Derivatives: Off to Hollywood!
As if we needed another buzzword, one appears to be destined to be on everyone’s lips before long. It blurs the boundaries between financial derivatives trading and betting still further.
30 July 2006
- You need freedom to find safety
Mention the words ‘unconstrained’ and ‘high yield’ in the same sentence, and certain risk-averse investors will begin to worry. However, it is the strategic freedom and the access to select high-yield credit opportunities that have helped the wise fixed-income investor through May.
26 June 2006
- US inflation will be the key to the performance of financial markets in the rest of 2006
Financial markets have become turbulent in recent weeks, in part due to worries about US inflation, interest rates and output growth. At the root of these worries is concern that US inflation pressures have got a little out of control.
1 June 2006
- Effectively converting risk to return through loosening the constraints on shorting
As investors continue to search for additional sources of alpha, there has been growing interest in strategies that implement both long and short positions to increase the opportunity set for generating returns.
1 June 2006