The latest from HGi

Will the UK become a high-tax economy?

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Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
23 hours ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following

UK whole-economy output has now surpassed its level in the 2007-08 financial year yet the budget deficit remains huge – a projected 5.5% of GDP on an underlying basis* in 2014-15, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), compared with 2.6% in 2007-08. Why hasn’t economic recovery delivered commensurate fiscal improvement?

Equities versus cash investment rules: an update

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
2 days ago
EquitiesClick for moreClick to follow:Equities

Previous posts have described two simple investment rules for switching between global equities and US dollar cash. The rules still favoured equities at the time of the last update in October 2013.

Why the "new normal" for UK Bank rate may be 4% not 2.5%

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
3 days ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has suggested that a “normal” level of Bank rate is now about 2.5% versus 5% before the financial crisis. This suggestion is defensible based on the recent spread between bank interest rates and Bank rate – this has been much higher than before the crisis, requiring Bank rate to be lower to compensate.

World Cup economics – a Latin American take

Nicholas CowleyClick for moreClick to follow:Nicholas Cowley
182 Following
3 days ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
EquitiesClick for moreClick to follow:Equities 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following

With the dust settling on the 2014 World Cup, we thought it would be an opportune time to contrast the performances of some of the teams in South America with the outlook for their stock markets.

Time to heal

John BennettClick for moreClick to follow:John Bennett
310 Following
1 week ago
CorrelationClick for moreClick to follow:Correlation 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
381 Following
 
EquitiesClick for moreClick to follow:Equities
317 Following

As Europe continues to recover, the market focus is shifting and correlation falling

Property’s long-term credentials

Marcus Langlands PearseClick for moreClick to follow:Marcus Langlands Pearse
135 Following
1 week ago
YieldsClick for moreClick to follow:Yields 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
428 Following
 
PropertyClick for moreClick to follow:Property
215 Following

Property's long-term credentials: Andrew Friend and Marcus Langlands Pearse on UK commercial property investment

Impatient performance

Bill McQuakerClick for moreClick to follow:Bill McQuaker
349 Following
 
John BennettClick for moreClick to follow:John Bennett
310 Following
 
Richard PeaseClick for moreClick to follow:Richard Pease
215 Following
1 week ago
EquitiesClick for moreClick to follow:Equities 
PerformanceClick for moreClick to follow:Performance 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following

The removal of David Moyes, erstwhile manager of Manchester United football club, after only 10 months is symptomatic of an impatient modern culture - one in which instant results are demanded. Does the asset management industry suffer similar short-termism?

Why Eurozone economic news should improve

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
428 Following
 
USClick for moreClick to follow:US
224 Following

The Citi Eurozone economic surprise index has been negative since the spring but the balance of news may now improve, based on an expected revival in global activity and respectable narrow money trends. Growth, however, will probably lag other regions.

Long-haul investing

1 week ago
EquitiesClick for moreClick to follow:Equities 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following

Five fund managers on some of the longer-term opportunities they have identified in the fixed-income and equity markets.

UK inflation firming on schedule

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
428 Following

Previous posts extending back to last summer argued that the trend in UK inflation would shift from down to up in spring 2014 in lagged response to faster monetary growth and associated economic strength. The higher-than-expected June number reported today is consistent with the forecast but recent volatility suggests waiting for July data before concluding that the trend has turned.

Global Snapshot - July 2014

1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following

The latest issue of the Global Snapshot provides a round-up of the main developments in economics, bonds, currencies and equity markets in July 2014. Plus Simon Ward, Henderson’s Chief Economist’s latest views.

Chinese money trends signalling solid H2 economy

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
428 Following

Chinese monetary statistics for June suggest that economic growth will rise through end-2014.

Testing times for alpha generation maybe, but opportunities still present

Stephen ThariyanClick for moreClick to follow:Stephen Thariyan
242 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
428 Following
Stephen Thariyan, Global Head of Credit at Henderson, discusses the performance of sterling credit portfolios in Q2 2014, while also sharing his views on the outlook for credit for the rest of the year.

Japanese economic outlook still weak, based on money trends

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following

Recent Japanese economic news has mostly disappointed. Real consumer spending recovered by only 1.3% in May after an 8.1% drop in April. Core machinery orders plunged 17.4%, to a 15-month low. Export volumes were down 2.2%, still failing to benefit from a lower yen.

Should investors chase frontier markets?

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
Emerging MarketsClick for moreClick to follow:Emerging Markets
219 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following

The MSCI frontier markets index has risen by 17.4% in US dollar terms year-to-date, far outpacing gains of 6.2% and 6.0% respectively for MSCI’s developed and emerging markets indices. Is this a reflection of the fundamental attraction of these markets or more evidence that QE is driving excessive risk-taking?

A healthy first half for the retail credit funds at Henderson

John PattulloClick for moreClick to follow:John Pattullo
279 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
381 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following
John Pattullo Head of Retail Fixed Income at Henderson Global Investors looks back at the first half of 2014. He examines the performance of the fixed income markets and that of Henderson’s retail fixed income funds, while sharing his expectations for the rest of the year.

Refusing to play the popular consensus tune

Jenna BarnardClick for moreClick to follow:Jenna Barnard
247 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
381 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following

Up until the middle of April, fixed income markets have performed well with strong returns across the board. Jenna Barnard, Co-manager of the Strategic Bond Fund, talks about the surprising convergence in returns, sharing her outlook for the market and where pockets of opportunity lie.

Property equities: yielding growth

3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
336 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
428 Following

Guy Barnard and Tim Gibson provide an overview of the sector’s prospects together with current fund positioning. Guy and Tim take over this week as co-heads of Henderson Global Property Equities as Patrick Sumner retires.

Europe and the US: current hot topics

Colin FleuryClick for moreClick to follow:Colin Fleury
37 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
381 Following
 
USClick for moreClick to follow:US
224 Following
Members of the Henderson Fixed Income Investment Strategy Group (ISG) — Colin Fleury, Head of Secured Credit, and James McAlevey, Head of Interest Rates — discuss the significance and implications of the recent European Central Bank actions and the disappointing Q1 GDP growth data in the US.

UK Bank rate hike needed to offset bank-led monetary easing

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
268 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
518 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
428 Following

MPC members are debating when to raise interest rates. None, presumably, think that policy should be loosened. A backdoor easing, however, is taking place as banks continue to cut lending and deposit rates.



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