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ECB takes up the QE baton, decoupling Europe from the US

Phil ApelClick for moreClick to follow:Phil Apel
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3 days ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
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At its 4 September meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) unleashed a fresh round of monetary stimulus in response to weakening growth and inflation expectations for the region. What are the implications of the ECB actions and of the decoupling of the markets in the US and Europe?

US earnings pick-up suggesting less dovish Fed

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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3 days ago
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Rising US average earnings growth casts doubt on the Federal Open Market Committee’s current assessment that “there remains significant underutilization of labor resources”.

Henderson expands fixed income team with new investment director appointment

5 days ago
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Henderson Global Investors today announces the appointment of Dónal Kinsella as investment director in its fixed income team. In this new role, Dónal will be primarily responsible for representing Henderson’s fixed income capabilities to the institutional market.

Japanese money numbers slightly more hopeful

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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5 days ago
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Japanese money growth remains weak but may be regaining momentum. Along with a fading impact of April’s sales tax rise, this suggests better economic performance in early 2015.

Global leading indicator still signalling strength

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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5 days ago
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The global longer leading indicator* followed here rose in July, supporting optimism about near-term economic prospects.

Who bought the bond market?

5 days ago
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The bond rally this year caught many investors off guard; we believe this rally is largely technically driven and are not of the view that the bull flattening of the curve, where longer dated yields have fallen faster than short-dated yields, is telling us anything more sinister about forward looking growth dynamics as some commentators believe. It does, however, merit a look at the drivers and the main buyers.

Viewpoint: Reaction to ECB rate cut

1 week ago
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On Thursday 4 September 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates to new record lows while announcing a programme of private sector asset purchases aimed at bolstering the eurozone’s flagging economy. Here are a few summary views from various desks at Henderson regarding the ECB announcements.

US narrow money suggesting early 2015 economic slowdown

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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1 week ago
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US narrow money rose strongly during the first half of 2014 but slowed in July and probably contracted last month, judging from weekly data through 25 August. Barring a strong September rebound, this suggests that the economy will lose momentum in early 2015.

Cashback, anyone?

James HendersonClick for moreClick to follow:James Henderson
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1 week ago
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The withdrawal of credit during the global financial crisis saw companies focus on cash generation and debt reduction. James Henderson looks at the ensuing proliferation of special dividends and buybacks.

UK 2008-09 recession no worse than 1979-82

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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1 week ago
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The UK 2008-09 recession may no longer warrant the label “great".

Global money trends still positive but losing momentum

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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2 weeks ago
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Global economic growth should firm further near-term but is likely to moderate again in late 2014 / early 2015, judging from July money supply data.

Eurozone / UK core inflation defying "deflationistas"

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
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The “monetarist” rule-of-thumb that money supply changes lead domestic prices by roughly two years suggested that Eurozone and UK “core” inflation would bottom around end-2013 and revive during 2014. Recent news is consistent with this forecast, although the rise to date has been small.

A healthy diagnosis

Chris PalmerClick for moreClick to follow:Chris Palmer
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3 weeks ago
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While the investment universe of health care stocks in the emerging markets is currently small, the sector has a strong growth potential and over time will likely become a much more important sector for emerging market investors than it is today.

John Bennett video: The door has reopened to Global Europe

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3 weeks ago
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John Bennett steps away from his short-term theme of ‘renting banks’, and explains why, against a troubled macro backdrop in the region, he sees opportunities to invest in European companies with global exposure.

Asian Renaissance

Michael KerleyClick for moreClick to follow:Michael Kerley
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3 weeks ago
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Mike Kerley discusses specific themes and stocks benefiting from reform in Asia Pacific, including State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in China, power producers in India and South Korean government initiatives to discourage cash hoarding by corporates.

US REITs - leading the pack

3 weeks ago
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REITs have topped the table on US asset class returns in eight out of the last 15 years, and were in the top three in 10 of the 15 years against nine asset classes. Not bad! Can the momentum be maintained?

When the worst brings the best - can negative real interest rates be a good thing?

Michael Wood-MartinClick for moreClick to follow:Michael Wood-Martin
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3 weeks ago
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Away from the noise of economic data and quarterly earnings an interesting situation has been developing in the Japanese bond market. Following the seismic changes instigated by Abe-san over a year and a half ago, Japan has been running a negative real interest rate.

Chinese equities - positioned for a rebound?

Caroline MaurerClick for moreClick to follow:Caroline Maurer
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3 weeks ago
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Chinese economic growth seems to be stabilising due to better macroeconomic management, with GDP growth of 7.4% and 7.5% (yoy) in Q1 and Q2 2014, respectively. Caroline Maurer, Fund Manager of the Horizon China Fund points out three themes that she believes could have a significant impact on China’s short to medium term growth.

The August 2014 issue of Global Snapshot

1 month ago
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The latest issue of the Global Snapshot provides a round-up of the main developments in economics, bonds, currencies and equity markets in July 2014. Plus Simon Ward, Henderson’s Chief Economist’s latest views.

 

Eurozone core inflation stable / M1 growth satisfactory

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
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1 month ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
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Eurozone annual consumer price inflation fell further to 0.4% in July versus 0.7% in January and 1.6% in July 2013. This decline, however, is largely explained by lower energy and food costs. “Core” inflation, i.e. excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 0.8% in July versus 0.7% in January and 1.1% in July last year.



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