The latest from HGi

The Verizon of the high yield market

NEW
Jenna BarnardClick for moreClick to follow:Jenna Barnard
239 Following
 
John PattulloClick for moreClick to follow:John Pattullo
271 Following
17 hours ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
369 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following

The €12.6bn jumbo deal unveiled by Numericable and Altice on Monday 14 April is set to become Europe's largest ever high yield bond sale, which could become the Verizon of the high yield bond markets.

Nobody dares to call Draghi's bluff

5 days ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
Emerging MarketsClick for moreClick to follow:Emerging Markets
209 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
369 Following

James McAlevey on Citywire Global TV talking about the European Central Bank and why the possibility of European quantitative easing is remote, plus reasons to like the 100-year Mexican sterling bond issue.

Rising stars

Chris BullockClick for moreClick to follow:Chris Bullock
228 Following
6 days ago
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
369 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following
 
Fixed IncomeClick for moreClick to follow:Fixed Income
254 Following

Chris Bullock looks at developments within credit markets, notably those companies that have successfully moved from a sub-investment grade to an investment grade rating. With it often proving profitable to identify the potential for such ratings upgrades before they occur, he describes several issuers within his portfolios that he believes could ultimately achieve investment grade status.

The case for real estate remains strong

1 week ago
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following
 
EquitiesClick for moreClick to follow:Equities
304 Following
Guy Barnard explains that capital continues to seek out income-producing assets and real estate is a key beneficiary of this environment. He points to encouraging signs of rental growth, helped by a lack of new supply in most markets.

Bedrock of investment in China: rising domestic consumption

Charlie AwdryClick for moreClick to follow:Charlie Awdry
187 Following
1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
Emerging MarketsClick for moreClick to follow:Emerging Markets
209 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
417 Following

Following years of rapid investment-led growth in China, consumers with their higher spending power are becoming ever more important to the economy, which makes tapping into local companies that truly understand the dynamic, and often regional, consumer tastes a golden opportunity.

Is UK national saving too low?

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
417 Following

The Office for National Statistics recently announced that its implementation of a new accounting framework in September 2014 will substantially boost the household saving ratio. Specifically, the increasing pension entitlements of members of funded defined benefit schemes will, from September, be included in income and saving. Initial work indicates that the change will boost annual saving ratios over 1997-2011 by between 3.4 and 6.3 percentage points. The saving ratio of 5.0% in the fourth quarter of 2013 could rise to about 10%.

Chinese money / credit trends consistent with moderate growth

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following

Chinese equities reacted negatively to news that annual growth in the M2 money supply fell to 12.1% in March – below the 13% official target for 2014 and the lowest on record in data extending back to 1998. The forecasting approach here emphasises the six-month change in inflation-adjusted M2. This measure edged lower in March but is in line with its average over 2011-13 and above readings between September and November last year.

The April 2014 issue of Global Snapshot

1 week ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following

The latest issue of the Global Snapshot provides a round-up of the main developments in economics, bonds, currencies and equity markets in March 2014. Plus Simon Ward, Henderson’s Chief Economist, shares his latest economic views.

Why has Japan's QE blitz failed?

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following

The MSCI Japan index fell by 9.1% in US dollar terms between end-2013 and yesterday, while the All-Countries World index was unchanged (-0.1%). Japanese stocks have been underperforming since July, when real narrow money growth started to diverge negatively from global trends.

Global leading indicators confirming summer growth rebound

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following

Global short- and longer-term leading indicators support the forecast here that six-month industrial output growth will pick up from a trough to be reached in the late spring.

UK capacity strains growing; activity news still surprising positively

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following

The first-quarter British Chambers of Commerce survey supports the assessment here that recent strong growth has exhausted spare capacity and is starting to put upward pressure on inflation, implying a significant probability that the Bank of England will be forced to raise official rates before year-end.

This time is different

2 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
USClick for moreClick to follow:US
214 Following

Paul O’Connor, Co-Head of Multi-Asset, discusses the latest US Employment Report. Taken together with other recent macroeconomic releases Stateside, he expects the underlying recovery to become increasingly visible as weather effects recede. He says that US macro dynamics in the months ahead should support a pro-cyclical stance in asset allocation.

In defence of the ECB's hold decision

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following

The ECB is under fire for keeping policy stable despite supposed deflationary dangers. Posts here were highly critical of the central bank in 2011, when it tightened policy in the face of real money supply contraction, thereby guaranteeing a recession. Its stance, however, reversed dramatically under President Draghi, resulting in the current economic recovery. While policy should be kept under review, the ECB’s passivity is justified.

ECB: outside chance of action

3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
369 Following
 
Fixed IncomeClick for moreClick to follow:Fixed Income
254 Following

The ECB left rates unchanged at the record low of 0.25% at its 3 April meeting while officials seemed to signal that European quantitative easing (QE) is not off the table. James McAlevey, Head of Interest Rates, gives a brief view of the latest ECB meeting.

The key points in bond investing

John PattulloClick for moreClick to follow:John Pattullo
271 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
369 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following

John Pattullo on Telegraph TV; giving a brief outline of the key points that all bond investors need to know.

UK household wealth / income ratio approaching new record

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
417 Following

UK households’ net housing and financial wealth (i.e. the value of housing and financial assets minus financial liabilities) rose by an estimated 8.3% during 2013, pushing its ratio to annual disposable income up to 7.14 – close to a record high of 7.4 reached at end-2007.

Fixed income perspectives: implications of a hawkish Fed

Phil ApelClick for moreClick to follow:Phil Apel
138 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
369 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following
Analysing the key messages from the latest FOMC meeting, the first with Chair Yellen at the helm; plus reasons why credit is likely to outperform government securities in 2014 despite political and economic uncertainty.

UK monetary trends solid / stable; credit still weak

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
UKClick for moreClick to follow:UK
417 Following

UK monetary trends remain upbeat, with rising corporate liquidity supporting hopes of strong business investment.

US style cov-lite loans: a new trend in Europe?

David MilwardClick for moreClick to follow:David Milward
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
EuropeClick for moreClick to follow:Europe
369 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following

These days cov-lite loans are commonplace in the US with more than half of the loans issued having this structure. As risk appetite and confidence continues to improve in Europe, could US style cov-lite loans become entrenched in the European market?

Global money trends signalling summer growth rebound

Simon WardClick for moreClick to follow:Simon Ward
260 Following
3 weeks ago
Economics & marketsClick for moreClick to follow:Economics & markets
502 Following
 
GlobalClick for moreClick to follow:Global
324 Following

Global real narrow money trends continue to suggest that industrial output growth will pick up from a trough to be reached in the late spring. Confidence in this forecast would be strengthened by an upturn in the longer leading indicator followed here – a February reading will be available next week.



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